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Photo: G patkar
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
17 Feb 2026 · T20
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photographRecorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 38%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 1% to 59% during the match (Nepal: 41% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Munseycaught · Sundeep Jora · Rohit Kumar 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sundeep Jora · b Rohit Kumar | 27 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 93.10 |
8 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Sompal Kami | 71 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 157.78 |
| Brandon McMullencaught and bowled · Sompal Kami 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Sompal Kami | 25 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 131.58 |
| Richie Berringtoncaught · Sundeep Jora · Kushal Bhurtel 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sundeep Jora · b Kushal Bhurtel | 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 166.67 |
| Tom Brucebowled · Sompal Kami 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sompal Kami |
| 5 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 83.33 |
| Matty Crossbowled · Nandan Yadav 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nandan Yadav | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Michael Leaskcaught · Aasif Sheikh · Nandan Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Nandan Yadav | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 10* | 4 | 0 | 1 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Oliver Davidsonnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nandan Yadav0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 8.50 | 2 | 0 |
| 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 9.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-80 (George Munsey, 10.0) · 2-132 (Michael Jones, 15.2) · 3-133 (Brandon McMullen, 15.4) · 4-145 (Richie Berrington, 17.0) · 5-150 (Matty Cross, 17.3) · 6-156 (Tom Bruce, 18.4) · 7-162 (Michael Leask, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 25/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 36/0 |
| 5 | 10 | 46/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 52/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 61/0 |
| 8 | 6 | 67/0 |
| 9 | 7 | 74/0 |
| 10 | 6 | 80/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 84/1 |
| 12 | 17 | 101/1 |
| 13 | 9 | 110/1 |
| 14 | 8 | 118/1 |
| 15 | 13 | 131/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 134/3 |
| 17 | 11 | 145/4 |
| 18 | 8 | 153/5 |
| 19 | 5 | 158/6 |
| 20 | 12 | 170/7 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Michael Jones: Dave Morton · Public domain
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Brad Wheal: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.