BangladeshversusIndia

2 May 2024 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 7 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs117/8 India18.3 overs121/3 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

20%Bangladesh80%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,639 vs 1,419 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and Bangladesh won 3
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 19%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 38% during the match (India: 62% to 100%).

Biggest swings

6.3: RP Yadav to Murshida Khatun, Murshida Khatun out. India up from 64% to 68%.
7.5: Renuka Singh to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. India up from 65% to 69%.
13.4: SR Patil to Nigar Sultana, S Mostary out. India up from 64% to 68%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh117/8 India121/3

Innings 1

Bangladesh

117/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Aktercaught · Richa Ghosh · Renuka Singh 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Richa Ghosh · b Renuka Singh	39	27	5	0	144.44
Murshida Khatunrun out · Richa Ghosh, Deepti Sharma · Radha Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Richa Ghosh, Deepti Sharma	9	16	0	0	56.25
Nigar Sultanalbw · Radha Yadav 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Radha Yadav	28	36	1	0	77.78
Sobhana Mostaryrun out · Richa Ghosh, Renuka Singh · Shreyanka Patil 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Richa Ghosh, Renuka Singh	15	20	1	0	75.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Renuka Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	1	0
Pooja Vastrakar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	1	0
Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	0	4.50	0	0
Shreyanka Patil0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	1	0
Radha Yadav0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	22	2	5.50	2	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	8	12/0
3	8	20/0
4	10	30/0
5	8	38/0
6	6	44/0
7	5	49/1
8	7	56/2
9	2	58/2
10	8	66/2
11	6	72/2
12	7	79/2
13	4	83/2
14	3	86/4
15	3	89/4
16	2	91/4
17	6	97/4
18	9	106/4
19	6	112/6
20	5	117/8

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