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Women's T20 World Cup Qualifier · 2025/26 · Women
18 Jan 2026 · T20
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 72%; Netherlands batted first.
Netherlands's chances ranged from 69% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 31%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Siegerscaught · Audrey Mazvishaya · Christabel Chatonzwa 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Audrey Mazvishaya · b Christabel Chatonzwa | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| P Molkenboercaught · Kelis Ndhlovu · L Mabhero 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kelis Ndhlovu · b L Mabhero | 27 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 103.85 |
| Babette de Leedelbw · Christabel Chatonzwa 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Christabel Chatonzwa | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Sterre Kaliscaught and bowled · Audrey Mazvishaya 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Audrey Mazvishaya | 26 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 89.66 |
| Robine Rijkelbw · Christabel Chatonzwa 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Christabel Chatonzwa | 15 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 136.36 |
| Frederique Overdijklbw · Christabel Chatonzwa 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Christabel Chatonzwa | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Iris Zwillinglbw · K Chigora 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b K Chigora | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| S Khurananot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 13* | 16 | 1 | 0 | 81.25 |
|---|
| Caroline de Langebowled · Christabel Chatonzwa 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Christabel Chatonzwa | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Silver Siegersrun out · Josephine Nkomo · Josephine Nkomo 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Josephine Nkomo | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| I van der Woningbowled · Josephine Nkomo 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josephine Nkomo | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 13 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Chigora0 maidens · 11 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 11.00 | 11 | 0 |
| Christabel Chatonzwa0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 5 | 5.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Josephine Nkomo0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Nyasha Gwanzura0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Audrey Mazvishaya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| L Mabhero0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| B Biza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-18 (Heather Siegers, 1.2) · 2-18 (Babette de Leede, 1.3) · 3-71 (Sterre Kalis, 9.5) · 4-73 (P Molkenboer, 10.3) · 5-94 (Robine Rijke, 12.5) · 6-95 (Iris Zwilling, 13.1) · 7-107 (Frederique Overdijk, 14.3) · 8-107 (Caroline de Lange, 15.0) · 9-122 (Silver Siegers, 18.3) · 10-122 (I van der Woning, 19.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 16/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 19/2 |
| 3 | 8 | 27/2 |
| 4 | 9 | 36/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 42/2 |
| 6 | 3 | 45/2 |
| 7 | 10 | 55/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 58/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 60/2 |
| 10 | 11 | 71/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 77/4 |
| 12 | 12 | 89/4 |
| 13 | 6 | 95/5 |
| 14 | 7 | 102/6 |
| 15 | 5 | 107/8 |
| 16 | 5 | 112/8 |
| 17 | 7 | 119/8 |
| 18 | 2 | 121/8 |
| 19 | 1 | 122/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.