Antigua and Barbuda FalconsversusSt Lucia Kings

31 Aug 2025 · T20

Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet · Venue photograph

Recorded result

St Lucia Kings won by 6 wickets

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons20.0 overs204/4 St Lucia Kings17.5 overs206/4 Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons started on 35%; Antigua and Barbuda Falcons batted first.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons’s chance of winning (%) · St Lucia Kings is the rest

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons's chances ranged from 0% to 74% during the match (St Lucia Kings: 27% to 100%).

Biggest swings

6.1: T Shamsi to J Andrew, J Andrew out. St Lucia Kings up from 49% to 58%.
6.2: T Shamsi to K Gore, K Gore out. St Lucia Kings up from 58% to 66%.
2nd inns 2.3: Salman Irshad to J Charles, J Charles out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 40% to 53%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons204/4 St Lucia Kings206/4

Innings 1