AustraliaversusSouth Africa

24 Aug 2025 · ODI

Recorded result

Australia won by 276 runs

Australia50.0 overs431/2 South Africa24.5 overs155/10 Ray Mitchell Oval, Harrup Park, Mackay ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

56%Australia44%South Africa

Why

Australia are playing at home in Australia
In the last 10 ODIs between these sides, South Africa won 7 and Australia won 3
On results in ODIs so far, Australia rate stronger than South Africa (1,688 vs 1,682 on our results rating)

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 53%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 53% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 47%).

Biggest swings

1.6: PWA Mulder to MR Marsh, six by MR Marsh. Australia up from 63% to 67%.

Australia431/2 South Africa155/10

Innings 1

Australia

431/250.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Travis Headcaught · Dewald Brevis · Keshav Maharaj 17 fours · 5 sixes	caught · Dewald Brevis · b Keshav Maharaj	142	103	17	5	137.86
Mitchell Marshcaught · Ryan Rickelton · Senuran Muthusamy 6 fours · 5 sixes	caught · Ryan Rickelton · b Senuran Muthusamy	100	106	6	5	94.34
Cameron Greennot out 6 fours · 8 sixes	not out	118*	55	6	8	214.55
Alex Careynot out7 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Kwena Maphaka0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	6.0	73	0	12.17	3	0
Wiaan Mulder0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	7.0	93	0	13.29	3	1
Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	10.0	57	1	5.70	0	0
Aiden Markram0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	8.0	60	0	7.50	4	0
Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	10.0	68	0	6.80	3	0
Senuran Muthusamy0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	9.0	75	1	8.33	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	10	20/0
3	12	32/0
4	9	41/0
5	4	45/0
6	18	63/0
7	7	70/0
8	2	72/0
9	7	79/0
10	7	86/0
11	2	88/0
12	10	98/0
13	6	104/0
14	2	106/0
15	11	117/0
16	3	120/0
17	7	127/0
18	13	140/0
19	2	142/0
20	6	148/0
21	5	153/0
22	7	160/0
23	8	168/0
24	13	181/0
25	3	184/0
26	4	188/0
27	9	197/0
28	4	201/0
29	4	205/0
30	10	215/0
31	10	225/0
32	4	229/0
33	2	231/0
34	19	250/0
35	6	256/1
36	8	264/1
37	5	269/2
38	15	284/2
39	12	296/2
40	9	305/2
41	11	316/2
42	12	328/2
43	20	348/2
44	5	353/2
45	24	377/2
46	6	383/2
47	17	400/2
48	7	407/2
49	16	423/2
50	8	431/2

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