Royal Challengers BengaluruversusRajasthan Royals

24 Apr 2025 · T20

M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 11 runs

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs205/5 Rajasthan Royals20.0 overs194/9 M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 56%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Rajasthan Royals is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 13% to 99% during the match (Rajasthan Royals: 1% to 87%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.6: B Kumar to Dhruv Jurel, four by Dhruv Jurel. Rajasthan Royals up from 62% to 87%.
2nd inns 18.3: JR Hazlewood to Dhruv Jurel, Dhruv Jurel out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 25% to 47%.
2nd inns 18.4: JR Hazlewood to JC Archer, JC Archer out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 47% to 73%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru205/5 Rajasthan Royals194/9

Innings 1