Barbados TridentsversusJamaica Kingsmen

11 Aug 2026 · T20

Sabina Park · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Barbados Tridents won by 5 runs

Barbados Tridents20.0 overs206/3 Jamaica Kingsmen20.0 overs201/9 Sabina Park ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Barbados Tridents started on 46%; Barbados Tridents batted first.

Barbados Tridents’s chance of winning (%) · Jamaica Kingsmen is the rest

Barbados Tridents's chances ranged from 47% to 99% during the match (Jamaica Kingsmen: 1% to 53%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 19.3: RR Simmonds to AD Russell, six by AD Russell. Jamaica Kingsmen up from 10% to 49%.
2nd inns 19.4: RR Simmonds to AD Russell, AD Russell out. Barbados Tridents up from 51% to 72%.
2nd inns 19.5: RR Simmonds to Hunain Shah, VO Lawes out. Barbados Tridents up from 72% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Barbados Tridents206/3 Jamaica Kingsmen201/9

Innings 1