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Netherlands Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2024 · Women
8 Aug 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 50%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 68% during the match (Netherlands: 32% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saskia Horleycaught · Babette de Leede · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Babette de Leede · b Iris Zwilling | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Abbi Aitkenbowled · Hannah Landheer 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Hannah Landheer | 17 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Darcey Cartercaught · P Molkenboer · Iris Zwilling 8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · P Molkenboer · b Iris Zwilling | 86 | 110 | 8 | 0 | 78.18 |
| Priyanaz Chatterjirun out · Caroline de Lange · Eva Lynch 0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Caroline de Lange | 13 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 46.43 |
| Megan McCollbowled · Caroline de Lange 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Caroline de Lange | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Iris Zwilling |
| 34 |
| 35 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 97.14 |
| Katherine Frasercaught · Frederique Overdijk · Silver Siegers 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Frederique Overdijk · b Silver Siegers | 8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Ellen Watsoncaught · Babette de Leede · Silver Siegers 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Babette de Leede · b Silver Siegers | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Chloe Abellbw · Caroline de Lange 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Caroline de Lange | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Abtaha Maqsoodnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 13 | 0 | 0 | 46.15 |
|---|
| Olivia Bellcaught and bowled · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Iris Zwilling | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iris Zwilling1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.1 | 1 | 31 | 4 | 3.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Hannah Landheer0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 2 | 1 |
| Frederique Overdijk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Eva Lynch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Caroline de Lange1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 3.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Silver Siegers0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 3.56 | 5 | 0 |
| Annemijn van Beuge0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Saskia Horley, 0.3) · 2-26 (Abbi Aitken, 5.2) · 3-60 (Priyanaz Chatterji, 13.2) · 4-76 (Megan McColl, 16.1) · 5-148 (Lorna Jack, 28.1) · 6-160 (Katherine Fraser, 33.0) · 7-164 (Ellen Watson, 34.4) · 8-166 (Chloe Abel, 35.4) · 9-177 (Darcey Carter, 39.3) · 10-180 (Olivia Bell, 41.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 21/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 26/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 31/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 37/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 45/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 47/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 49/2 |
| 12 | 8 | 57/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 60/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 67/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 72/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 76/3 |
| 17 | 4 | 80/4 |
| 18 | 2 | 82/4 |
| 19 | 2 | 84/4 |
| 20 | 3 | 87/4 |
| 21 | 4 | 91/4 |
| 22 | 9 | 100/4 |
| 23 | 6 | 106/4 |
| 24 | 6 | 112/4 |
| 25 | 10 | 122/4 |
| 26 | 9 | 131/4 |
| 27 | 10 | 141/4 |
| 28 | 7 | 148/4 |
| 29 | 3 | 151/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 154/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 156/5 |
| 32 | 0 | 156/5 |
| 33 | 4 | 160/6 |
| 34 | 3 | 163/6 |
| 35 | 2 | 165/7 |
| 36 | 3 | 168/8 |
| 37 | 2 | 170/8 |
| 38 | 3 | 173/8 |
| 39 | 4 | 177/8 |
| 40 | 1 | 178/9 |
| 41 | 2 | 180/9 |
| 42 | 0 | 180/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.