AustriaversusRomania

30 Jul 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Romania won by 6 wickets

Austria17.3 overs99/10 Romania11.4 overs102/4 Moara Vlasiei Cricket Ground, Ilfov County ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

53%Austria47%Romania

Why

In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Austria won 5 and Romania won 2
Romania are playing at home in Romania
On results in T20 internationals so far, Austria rate stronger than Romania (1,575 vs 1,564 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Austria started on 51%; Austria batted first.

Austria’s chance of winning (%) · Romania is the rest

Austria's chances ranged from 0% to 70% during the match (Romania: 31% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.6: Irfan Ringku to Zeshan Arif, Zeshan Arif out. Romania up from 48% to 59%.
5.2: M Koli to Shadnan Khan, Shadnan Khan out. Romania up from 59% to 74%.
8.5: Rameez Khan to Baseer Khan, Baseer Khan out. Romania up from 71% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Austria99/10 Romania102/4

Innings 1

Austria

99/1017.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Austria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Karanbir Singhbowled · Irfan Ringku 0 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Irfan Ringku	7	10	0	1	70.00
Bilal Zalmaicaught · Avishka Iroshan · M Koli 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Avishka Iroshan · b M Koli	17	9	1	1	188.89
Zeshan Ariflbw · Irfan Ringku 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Irfan Ringku	2	8	0	0	25.00
Shadnan Khanbowled · M Koli 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b M Koli	6	5	1	0	120.00
Aqib Iqbalcaught · M Koli · T Sandaruwan 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · M Koli · b T Sandaruwan	16	23	0	1	69.57
Baseer Khan

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Irfan Ringku0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	2	7.00	2
M Koli0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	2	7.00	7
Rameez Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	7	1	3.50	1
V Saini0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	0	6.50	0
Nazmus Sakib (2)0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	2	6.00	1
T Sandaruwan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	5	3	1.43	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	14	14/0
2	11	25/0
3	1	26/1
4	8	34/2
5	10	44/3
6	2	46/4
7	3	49/4
8	4	53/4
9	4	57/5
10	9	66/5
11	3	69/5
12	2	71/6
13	2	73/7
14	1	74/8
15	6	80/9
16	2	82/9
17	17	99/9
18	0	99/10

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