Rajasthan RoyalsversusPunjab Kings

5 Apr 2025 · T20

Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium, New Chandigarh · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rajasthan Royals won by 50 runs

Rajasthan Royals20.0 overs205/4 Punjab Kings20.0 overs155/9 Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium, New Chandigarh ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rajasthan Royals started on 48%; Rajasthan Royals batted first.

Rajasthan Royals’s chance of winning (%) · Punjab Kings is the rest

Rajasthan Royals's chances ranged from 49% to 100% during the match (Punjab Kings: 0% to 51%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.1: JC Archer to Priyansh Arya, Priyansh Arya out. Rajasthan Royals up from 75% to 85%.
2nd inns 0.6: JC Archer to SS Iyer, SS Iyer out. Rajasthan Royals up from 79% to 87%.
2nd inns 14.6: M Theekshana to GJ Maxwell, GJ Maxwell out. Rajasthan Royals up from 89% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rajasthan Royals205/4 Punjab Kings155/9

Innings 1