**Boland Park, Paarl**
Photo: Jshecket
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2023/24 · Men

Joburg Super KingsversusPaarl Royals

17 Jan 2024 · T20

Boland Park, Paarl · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Paarl Royals won by 7 wickets

Joburg Super Kings19.5 overs134/10 Paarl Royals14.1 overs135/3 Boland Park, Paarl ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Joburg Super Kings started on 43%; Joburg Super Kings batted first.

Joburg Super Kings’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

Joburg Super Kings's chances ranged from 0% to 44% during the match (Paarl Royals: 56% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.4: OC McCoy to RR Hendricks, RR Hendricks out. Paarl Royals up from 56% to 66%.
5.1: L Ngidi to F du Plessis, F du Plessis out. Paarl Royals up from 62% to 70%.
5.2: L Ngidi to WL Madsen, WL Madsen out. Paarl Royals up from 70% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Joburg Super Kings134/10 Paarl Royals135/3

Innings 1