South AfricaversusPakistan

1 Nov 2025 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 4 wickets

South Africa20.0 overs139/9 Pakistan19.0 overs140/6 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

31%South Africa69%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than South Africa (1,639 vs 1,571 on our results rating)
Pakistan are playing at home in Pakistan
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 6 and South Africa won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 30%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 30% during the match (Pakistan: 70% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.2: Shaheen Shah Afridi to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. Pakistan up from 70% to 82%.
0.3: Shaheen Shah Afridi to LG Pretorius, LG Pretorius out. Pakistan up from 82% to 88%.
11.4: Faheem Ashraf to D Ferreira, D Ferreira out. Pakistan up from 86% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa139/9 Pakistan140/6

Innings 1

South Africa

139/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Quinton de Kockbowled · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Shaheen Afridi	0	2	0	0	0.00
Reeza Hendrickscaught · Hassan Nawaz · Usman Tariq 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Hassan Nawaz · b Usman Tariq	34	36	2	0	94.44
LG Pretoriuscaught · Usman Tariq · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Usman Tariq · b Shaheen Afridi	0	1	0	0	0.00
Dewald Breviscaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Usman Tariq 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Usman Tariq	21	22	0	2	95.45

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	3	6.50	1
Salman Mirza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	1	4.00	0
Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	2
Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	38	1	12.67	1
Usman Tariq0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	2
Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	5	0	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/2
2	1	4/2
3	7	11/2
4	5	16/2
5	2	18/2
6	4	22/2
7	15	37/2
8	4	41/3
9	4	45/4
10	11	56/4
11	19	75/4
12	2	77/6
13	5	82/6
14	10	92/6
15	4	96/7
16	12	108/7
17	7	115/7
18	6	121/8
19	4	125/9
20	14	139/9

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