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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier Group C · 2024 · Men
25 Aug 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Spain more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Greece started on 9%; Greece batted first.
Greece's chances ranged from 0% to 10% during the match (Spain: 90% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aslam Mohammadcaught · Mohammad Atif · SJ Hughes-Pinan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Atif · b SJ Hughes-Pinan | 9 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 52.94 |
| GC Galaniscaught · Christian Munoz-Mills · Yasir Ali 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Christian Munoz-Mills · b Yasir Ali | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Sajid Khan Afridicaught · Christian Munoz-Mills · C Rumistrzewicz 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Christian Munoz-Mills · b C Rumistrzewicz | 27 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 122.73 |
| Samader Shadabcaught · Christian Munoz-Mills · LA Burns 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Christian Munoz-Mills · b LA Burns | 6 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
| AS Mehmicaught · C Rumistrzewicz · Mohammad Atif 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · C Rumistrzewicz · b Mohammad Atif | 18 | 21 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 85.71 |
| Sinan Khanstumped · A Davidson Soler · C Rumistrzewicz 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · A Davidson Soler · b C Rumistrzewicz | 11 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 157.14 |
|---|
| A Gasteratoscaught and bowled · Yasir Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Yasir Ali | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Muhammad Tahircaught · D Doyle-Calle · Yasir Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · D Doyle-Calle · b Yasir Ali | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
| Ali Muaazcaught and bowled · Mohammad Atif 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Mohammad Atif | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| S Vasilakisnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yasir Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| SJ Hughes-Pinan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Atif0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3.25 | 3 | 0 |
| LA Burns0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 9.50 | 3 | 0 |
| C Rumistrzewicz0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 3.75 | 0 | 1 |
1-9 (GC Galanis, 2.5) · 2-22 (Aslam Mohammad, 5.4) · 3-48 (Sajid Khan Afridi, 9.3) · 4-62 (Samader Shadab, 12.2) · 5-75 (Sinan Khan, 14.0) · 6-86 (AS Mehmi, 16.2) · 7-91 (A Gasteratos, 17.3) · 8-92 (Ali Muaaz, 18.1) · 9-96 (Muhammad Tahir, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 9/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 16/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 21/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 22/2 |
| 7 | 10 | 32/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 37/2 |
| 9 | 10 | 47/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 48/3 |
| 11 | 2 | 50/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 53/3 |
| 13 | 16 | 69/4 |
| 14 | 6 | 75/5 |
| 15 | 3 | 78/5 |
| 16 | 7 | 85/5 |
| 17 | 4 | 89/6 |
| 18 | 3 | 92/7 |
| 19 | 1 | 93/8 |
| 20 | 3 | 96/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.