Royal Challengers BangaloreversusMumbai Indians

2 Mar 2024 · T20

M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Mumbai Indians won by 7 wickets

Royal Challengers Bangalore20.0 overs131/6 Mumbai Indians15.1 overs133/3 M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bangalore started on 40%; Royal Challengers Bangalore batted first.

Royal Challengers Bangalore’s chance of winning (%) · Mumbai Indians is the rest

Royal Challengers Bangalore's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (Mumbai Indians: 53% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.3: IECM Wong to S Mandhana, S Mandhana out. Mumbai Indians up from 55% to 64%.
5.4: S Ishaque to SFM Devine, SFM Devine out. Mumbai Indians up from 67% to 75%.
12.1: P Vastrakar to S Molineux, S Molineux out. Mumbai Indians up from 72% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bangalore131/6 Mumbai Indians133/3

Innings 1