Super Smash · 2025/26 · Men

Northern DistrictsversusAuckland

22 Jan 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Northern Districts won by 107 runs

Northern Districts20.0 overs217/8 Auckland14.3 overs110/10 Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Districts started on 45%; Northern Districts batted first.

Northern Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Auckland is the rest

Northern Districts's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (Auckland: 0% to 55%).

Biggest swings

4.1: RD Harrison to BR Hampton, BR Hampton out. Auckland up from 24% to 34%.
5.5: H Johal to KD Clarke, KD Clarke out. Auckland up from 30% to 39%.
2nd inns 1.5: SC Kuggeleijn to SM Solia, SM Solia out. Northern Districts up from 79% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Districts217/8 Auckland110/10

Innings 1