Washington FreedomversusMI New York

20 Jun 2026 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Washington Freedom won by 30 runs

Washington Freedom20.0 overs245/5 MI New York20.0 overs215/6 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Washington Freedom started on 53%; Washington Freedom batted first.

Washington Freedom’s chance of winning (%) · MI New York is the rest

Washington Freedom's chances ranged from 53% to 100% during the match (MI New York: 0% to 47%).

Biggest swings

0.3: TA Boult to MJ Owen, four by MJ Owen. Washington Freedom up from 53% to 57%.
0.4: TA Boult to MJ Owen, four by MJ Owen. Washington Freedom up from 57% to 60%.
3.4: TA Boult to MJ Owen, six by MJ Owen. Washington Freedom up from 75% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Washington Freedom245/5 MI New York215/6

Innings 1