MexicoversusPeru

8 Aug 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Mexico won by 70 runs

Mexico20.0 overs180/8 Peru20.0 overs110/6 Los Pinos Polo Club 1, Cundinamarca ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Mexico more likely to win

64%Mexico36%Peru

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Mexico rate stronger than Peru (1,298 vs 1,200 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Mexico started on 62%; Mexico batted first.

Mexico’s chance of winning (%) · Peru is the rest

Mexico's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (Peru: 0% to 38%).

Biggest swings

1.3: Suresh Kumar to J Byrappa, six by J Byrappa. Mexico up from 67% to 72%.
4.1: Suresh Kumar to Shashikant Laxman, six by Shashikant Laxman. Mexico up from 77% to 81%.
2nd inns 2.4: Mohit Sharma to HK Brahmbhatt, HK Brahmbhatt out. Mexico up from 90% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Mexico180/8 Peru110/6

Innings 1

Mexico

180/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Mexico batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
J Byrappacaught · RL De silva · Suresh Kumar (2) 7 fours · 2 sixes	caught · RL De silva · b Suresh Kumar (2)	62	48	7	2	129.17
Shashikant Laxmanbowled · Nikhil Deshmukh 5 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b Nikhil Deshmukh	53	39	5	2	135.90
D Pandacaught · Nikhil Deshmukh · PH Shamdasani 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nikhil Deshmukh · b PH Shamdasani	12	7	2	0	171.43
GE Gutierrez Chavezcaught · RL De silva · PH Shamdasani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · RL De silva · b PH Shamdasani	4	8	0	0	50.00
Y Jastirun out · R Chatterton, Ross Hardie · R Chatterton 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · R Chatterton, Ross Hardie	1	1	0	0	100.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
R Chatterton0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	0	8.50	3
Suresh Kumar (2)0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	47	2	11.75	7
PH Shamdasani0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	6
HK Brahmbhatt0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	1	8.67	3
Nikhil Deshmukh0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	1	6.00	4
RD Cespedes0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	24	0	12.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	14	18/0
3	9	27/0
4	8	35/0
5	9	44/0
6	4	48/0
7	7	55/0
8	5	60/0
9	10	70/0
10	7	77/0
11	10	87/0
12	10	97/0
13	14	111/0
14	18	129/1
15	10	139/1
16	8	147/2
17	6	153/4
18	11	164/5
19	10	174/6
20	6	180/8

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