PakistanversusBangladesh

20 Jul 2025 · T20

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 7 wickets

Pakistan19.3 overs110/10 Bangladesh15.3 overs112/3 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

59%Pakistan41%Bangladesh

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 9 and Bangladesh won 1
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Pakistan (1,554 vs 1,551 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 56%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 68% during the match (Bangladesh: 32% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.6: Mahedi Hasan to Mohammad Haris, Mohammad Haris out. Bangladesh up from 34% to 46%.
5.5: Mustafizur Rahman to Hassan Nawaz, Hassan Nawaz out. Bangladesh up from 59% to 73%.
7.4: Mahedi Hasan to Fakhar Zaman, Mohammad Nawaz out. Bangladesh up from 71% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan110/10 Bangladesh112/3

Innings 1

Pakistan

110/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Fakhar Zamanrun out · Litton Das, Taskin Ahmed · Mustafizur Rahman 6 fours · 1 sixes	run out · Litton Das, Taskin Ahmed	44	34	6	1	129.41
Saim Ayubcaught · Mustafizur Rahman · Taskin Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mustafizur Rahman · b Taskin Ahmed	6	4	1	0	150.00
Mohammad Hariscaught · Shamim Hossain · Mahedi Hasan 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shamim Hossain · b Mahedi Hasan	4	3	1	0	133.33
Salman Ali Aghacaught · Litton Das · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Litton Das · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib	3	9	0	0	33.33
Hassan Nawazcaught · Rishad Hossain · Mustafizur Rahman0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mahedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	0
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	22	3	6.29	1
Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	1
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	6	2	1.50	0
Shamim Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	2	0	2.00	0
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	0	6.33	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	10	19/1
3	13	32/2
4	6	38/2
5	2	40/3
6	1	41/4
7	2	43/4
8	3	46/5
9	8	54/5
10	12	66/5
11	2	68/5
12	2	70/6
13	3	73/6
14	2	75/6
15	13	88/6
16	14	102/6
17	2	104/7
18	5	109/7
19	1	110/7
20	0	110/10

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