IrelandversusNetherlands

24 May 2024 · T20

Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Ireland won by 3 runs

Ireland20.0 overs161/6 Netherlands20.0 overs158/5 Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Netherlands more likely to win

41%Ireland59%Netherlands

Why

Netherlands are playing at home in the Netherlands
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Netherlands won 6 and Ireland won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than Netherlands (1,547 vs 1,546 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 38%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Netherlands is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 11% to 72% during the match (Netherlands: 28% to 89%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.6: BJ McCarthy to W Barresi, 0 runs to W Barresi. Ireland up from 28% to 45%.
2nd inns 19.3: CA Young to W Barresi, W Barresi out. Ireland up from 45% to 66%.
2nd inns 19.6: CA Young to BFW de Leede, 1 run to BFW de Leede. Ireland up from 69% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland161/6 Netherlands158/5

Innings 1

Ireland

161/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Andrew Balbirniecaught · Scott Edwards · Logan van Beek 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Scott Edwards · b Logan van Beek	5	11	0	0	45.45
Paul Stirlingcaught · Wesley Barresi · Paul van Meekeren 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Wesley Barresi · b Paul van Meekeren	36	27	4	1	133.33
Lorcan Tuckercaught · Vikramjit Singh · Bas de Leede 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Vikramjit Singh · b Bas de Leede	4	5	1	0	80.00
Harry Tectorlbw · Bas de Leede 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Bas de Leede

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Vivian Kingma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	0	9.00	0
Tim Pringle0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	0	5.00	0
Logan van Beek0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	0
Paul van Meekeren0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	2	8.50	0
Bas de Leede0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	43	2	10.75	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	8	15/0
3	5	20/0
4	3	23/1
5	9	32/1
6	10	42/1
7	3	45/3
8	1	46/3
9	4	50/3
10	7	57/4
11	12	69/4
12	3	72/4
13	16	88/4
14	9	97/4
15	13	110/4
16	8	118/4
17	1	119/5
18	8	127/6
19	11	138/6
20	23	161/6

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