**Grace Road, Leicester**
Photo: Mat Fascione
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

NorthamptonshireversusLeicestershire

12 Jul 2024 · T20

Grace Road, Leicester · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Leicestershire won by 3 wickets

Northamptonshire20.0 overs183/7 Leicestershire19.1 overs186/7 Grace Road, Leicester ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 51%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Leicestershire is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 2% to 81% during the match (Leicestershire: 19% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 13.4: DJ Willey to LPJ Kimber, LPJ Kimber out. Northamptonshire up from 41% to 60%.
2nd inns 14.5: AC Agar to JDS Neesham, six by JDS Neesham. Leicestershire up from 53% to 67%.
2nd inns 15.6: BW Sanderson to OB Cox, four by OB Cox. Leicestershire up from 69% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire183/7 Leicestershire186/7

Innings 1