IndiaversusEngland

12 Jul 2025 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 5 wickets

India20.0 overs167/7 England20.0 overs168/5 Edgbaston ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

43%India57%England

Why

England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than India (1,700 vs 1,689 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 41%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

India's chances ranged from 3% to 69% during the match (England: 31% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 19.3: A Reddy to AE Jones, AE Jones out. India up from 18% to 34%.
2nd inns 19.4: A Reddy to S Ecclestone, 3 runs to S Ecclestone. England up from 66% to 85%.
2nd inns 19.6: A Reddy to S Ecclestone, 1 run to S Ecclestone. England up from 84% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India167/7 England168/5

Innings 1

India

167/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Smriti Mandhanacaught · Linsey Smith · Emily Arlott 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Linsey Smith · b Emily Arlott	8	6	2	0	133.33
Shafali Vermacaught · Maia Bouchier · Charlie Dean 13 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Maia Bouchier · b Charlie Dean	75	41	13	1	182.93
Jemimah Rodriguesbowled · Linsey Smith 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Linsey Smith	1	5	0	0	20.00
Harmanpreet Kaurbowled · Charlie Dean2 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Emily Arlott0 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	42	1	10.50	6	1
Issy Wong0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	47	0	11.75	1	0
Linsey Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	0	0
Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	0	0
Charlie Dean0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	3	5.75	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/1
2	11	19/1
3	2	21/2
4	10	31/2
5	8	39/2
6	8	47/2
7	20	67/2
8	6	73/2
9	7	80/2
10	6	86/3
11	8	94/3
12	14	108/3
13	3	111/4
14	5	116/5
15	8	124/5
16	6	130/6
17	8	138/6
18	8	146/6
19	8	154/7
20	13	167/7

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