San Francisco UnicornsversusSeattle Orcas

25 Jun 2025 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

San Francisco Unicorns won by 32 runs

San Francisco Unicorns20.0 overs176/8 Seattle Orcas18.2 overs144/10 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

San Francisco Unicorns started on 64%; San Francisco Unicorns batted first.

San Francisco Unicorns’s chance of winning (%) · Seattle Orcas is the rest

San Francisco Unicorns's chances ranged from 26% to 100% during the match (Seattle Orcas: 0% to 74%).

Biggest swings

10.2: G Coetzee to SP Krishnamurthi, SP Krishnamurthi out. Seattle Orcas up from 33% to 47%.
2nd inns 8.4: Haris Rauf to H Klaasen, H Klaasen out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 65% to 80%.
2nd inns 15.2: Haris Rauf to G Coetzee, G Coetzee out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 71% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

San Francisco Unicorns176/8 Seattle Orcas144/10

Innings 1