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Sri Lanka tour of Pakistan · 2026/27 · Men
13 Oct 2026 · T20
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 83%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 91% during the match (Sri Lanka: 9% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahibzada Farhancaught · Dasun Shanaka · Nuwan Thushara 7 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Dasun Shanaka · b Nuwan Thushara | 76 | 47 | 7 | 3 | 161.70 |
 Fakhar Zamancaught · Lahiru Udara · Eshan Malinga1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Lahiru Udara · b Eshan Malinga | 12 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 171.43 |
| Maaz Sadaqatcaught · Chamindu Wickramasinghe · Eshan Malinga 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chamindu Wickramasinghe · b Eshan Malinga | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Hassan Nawazcaught · Kamindu Mendis · Vijayakanth Viyaskanth 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Vijayakanth Viyaskanth | 16 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 94.12 |
| Khawaja Nafaycaught · Sahan Arachchige · Dasun Shanaka0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Sahan Arachchige · b Dasun Shanaka |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 60.00 |
| Mohammad Imrancaught · Chamindu Wickramasinghe · Dasun Shanaka 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chamindu Wickramasinghe · b Dasun Shanaka | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Abdul Samadcaught · Lahiru Udara · Dasun Shanaka 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Lahiru Udara · b Dasun Shanaka | 15 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Arafat Minhasnot out 2 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 34* | 20 | 2 | 2 | 170.00 |
|---|
| Razaullah Mashwanibowled · Nuwan Thushara 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nuwan Thushara | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Binura Fernando0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 11.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Nuwan Thushara0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 9.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 38 | 2 | 9.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Vijayakanth Viyaskanth0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-34 (Fakhar Zaman, 3.1) · 2-34 (Maaz Sadaqat, 3.4) · 3-67 (Hassan Nawaz, 8.2) · 4-72 (Khawaja Nafay, 9.3) · 5-86 (Mohammad Imran, 11.5) · 6-102 (Abdul Samad, 13.4) · 7-168 (Sahibzada Farhan, 19.5) · 8-168 (Razaullah Mashwani, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 15 | 34/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 34/2 |
| 5 | 10 | 44/2 |
| 6 | 13 | 57/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 60/2 |
| 8 | 7 | 67/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 70/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 75/4 |
| 11 | 7 | 82/4 |
| 12 | 4 | 86/5 |
| 13 | 10 | 96/5 |
| 14 | 6 | 102/6 |
| 15 | 7 | 109/6 |
| 16 | 6 | 115/6 |
| 17 | 14 | 129/6 |
| 18 | 19 | 148/6 |
| 19 | 15 | 163/6 |
| 20 | 5 | 168/8 |
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
