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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
7 Feb 2026 · T20
Sinhalese Sports Club Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 14%; Netherlands batted first.
Netherlands's chances ranged from 4% to 92% during the match (Pakistan: 8% to 96%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Levittcaught · Shaheen Afridi · Mohammad Nawaz 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shaheen Afridi · b Mohammad Nawaz | 24 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 160.00 |
| Max O'Dowdcaught · Usman Khan · Salman Mirza 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Usman Khan · b Salman Mirza | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
 Bas de Leedecaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Mohammad Nawaz4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Mohammad Nawaz | 30 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 120.00 |
 Colin Ackermannbowled · Abrar Ahmed4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Abrar Ahmed | 20 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 142.86 |
| caught · Sahibzada Farhan · b Abrar Ahmed |
| 37 |
| 29 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 127.59 |
 Zach Lion-Cachetcaught · Mohammad Nawaz · Saim Ayub1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Nawaz · b Saim Ayub | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 112.50 |
|---|
| Logan van Beekcaught · Salman Ali Agha · Saim Ayub 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Saim Ayub | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Aryan Duttcaught · Sahibzada Farhan · Salman Mirza 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sahibzada Farhan · b Salman Mirza | 13 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 162.50 |
|---|
 Roelof van der Merwecaught · Salman Ali Agha · Shaheen Afridi0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Shaheen Afridi | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 44.44 |
|---|
| Kyle Kleinnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Paul van Meekerencaught · Usman Khan · Salman Mirza 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Usman Khan · b Salman Mirza | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 9.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Salman Mirza0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 24 | 3 | 6.26 | 2 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Shadab Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-28 (Max O'Dowd, 3.1) · 2-31 (Michael Levitt, 4.2) · 3-65 (Colin Ackermann, 8.0) · 4-105 (Bas de Leede, 12.4) · 5-127 (Scott Edwards, 16.0) · 6-128 (Logan van Beek, 16.2) · 7-129 (Zach Lion-Cachet, 16.4) · 8-139 (Roelof van der Merwe, 18.4) · 9-147 (Aryan Dutt, 19.4) · 10-147 (Paul van Meekeren, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 14 | 28/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 31/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 36/2 |
| 6 | 14 | 50/2 |
| 7 | 8 | 58/2 |
| 8 | 7 | 65/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 72/3 |
| 10 | 7 | 79/3 |
| 11 | 9 | 88/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 94/3 |
| 13 | 13 | 107/4 |
| 14 | 5 | 112/4 |
| 15 | 11 | 123/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 127/5 |
| 17 | 7 | 134/7 |
| 18 | 5 | 139/7 |
| 19 | 5 | 144/8 |
| 20 | 3 | 147/10 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Colin Ackermann: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shadab Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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