ArgentinaversusBrazil

16 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Argentina won by 11 runs

Argentina20.0 overs107/7 Brazil19.1 overs96/10 St George's College Ground, Buenos Aires ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Argentina more likely to win

81%Argentina19%Brazil

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Argentina rate stronger than Brazil (1,421 vs 1,214 on our results rating)
Argentina are playing at home in Argentina

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Argentina started on 79%; Argentina batted first.

Argentina’s chance of winning (%) · Brazil is the rest

Argentina's chances ranged from 61% to 96% during the match (Brazil: 4% to 39%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.2: AAP Rivero to MFI Assuncao, MFI Assuncao out. Argentina up from 65% to 83%.
2nd inns 17.1: Santiago Duggan to R Avery, four by R Avery. Brazil up from 17% to 32%.
2nd inns 17.2: Santiago Duggan to R Avery, L Maximo out. Argentina up from 68% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Argentina107/7 Brazil96/10

Innings 1

Argentina

107/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Argentina batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
B Angeltticaught and bowled · LH Rodrigues 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b LH Rodrigues	0	1	0	0	0.00
AAP Riverobowled · R Avery 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b R Avery	31	42	1	1	73.81
P Baroncaught · LF Muller · Yasar Haroon 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · LF Muller · b Yasar Haroon	2	7	0	0	28.57
A Kirschbaumcaught · MFI Assuncao · R Avery 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · MFI Assuncao · b R Avery	9	13	1	0	69.23
Alejandro Fergusonretired hurt · Muhammad Saleem 1 fours · 0 sixes	retired hurt	9*	14

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
LH Rodrigues0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	3	4.00	2
Yasar Haroon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	1	3.50	0
IC Simao0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	0	6.75	1
R Avery0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	0
Muhammad Saleem0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	6	0	3.00	1
G Oliveira0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	6	0	6.00	0
LF Muller0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	1	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	2	5/2
3	2	7/2
4	5	12/2
5	7	19/2
6	4	23/3
7	6	29/3
8	8	37/3
9	7	44/3
10	2	46/3
11	6	52/3
12	4	56/3
13	8	64/3
14	3	67/3
15	5	72/4
16	8	80/4
17	8	88/4
18	8	96/5
19	3	99/7
20	8	107/7

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.