Sharjah WarriorsversusDesert Vipers

28 Jan 2024 · T20

Sharjah Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sharjah Warriors won by 7 runs

Sharjah Warriors20.0 overs174/7 Desert Vipers20.0 overs167/7 Sharjah Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sharjah Warriors started on 46%; Sharjah Warriors batted first.

Sharjah Warriors’s chance of winning (%) · Desert Vipers is the rest

Sharjah Warriors's chances ranged from 36% to 97% during the match (Desert Vipers: 3% to 64%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 13.5: CR Woakes to AD Hales, AD Hales out. Sharjah Warriors up from 42% to 59%.
2nd inns 15.5: DR Sams to SE Rutherford, SE Rutherford out. Sharjah Warriors up from 46% to 66%.
2nd inns 17.3: CR Woakes to Azam Khan, Azam Khan out. Sharjah Warriors up from 63% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sharjah Warriors174/7 Desert Vipers167/7

Innings 1