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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier B · 2025/26 · Men
15 Mar 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Cayman Islands more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Argentina started on 30%; Argentina batted first.
Argentina's chances ranged from 0% to 31% during the match (Cayman Islands: 69% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Baroncaught · Conroy Wright · A Wright 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Conroy Wright · b A Wright | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 Alejandro Fergusoncaught · D Johnson · V Dhaniram0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · D Johnson · b V Dhaniram | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Rossicaught · V Dhaniram · A Wright 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · V Dhaniram · b A Wright | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| A Kirschbaumlbw · A Wright 4 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b A Wright | 50 | 40 | 4 | 1 | 125.00 |
| T Rossibowled · A Wright 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b A Wright | 8 | 8 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| R Escobarlbw · Romario Edwards 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Romario Edwards | 18 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 54.55 |
|---|
| AAP Riverobowled · D Johnson 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b D Johnson | 25 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Manuel Iturbebowled · Romario Edwards 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Romario Edwards | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Hernán Fennellnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| A Husainnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V Dhaniram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| A Wright0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| D Johnson0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 6.33 | 5 | 0 |
| Romario Edwards0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| J Buchanan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Conroy Wright0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Alejandro Ferguson, 0.4) · 2-3 (P Baron, 1.2) · 3-4 (Lucas Rossi, 1.5) · 4-14 (T Rossi, 4.0) · 5-75 (A Kirschbaum, 13.2) · 6-99 (R Escobar, 17.2) · 7-111 (AAP Rivero, 18.5) · 8-113 (Manuel Iturbe, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5/3 |
| 3 | 8 | 13/3 |
| 4 | 1 | 14/4 |
| 5 | 3 | 17/4 |
| 6 | 7 | 24/4 |
| 7 | 5 | 29/4 |
| 8 | 8 | 37/4 |
| 9 | 4 | 41/4 |
| 10 | 11 | 52/4 |
| 11 | 8 | 60/4 |
| 12 | 8 | 68/4 |
| 13 | 7 | 75/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 78/5 |
| 15 | 6 | 84/5 |
| 16 | 11 | 95/5 |
| 17 | 4 | 99/5 |
| 18 | 2 | 101/6 |
| 19 | 11 | 112/7 |
| 20 | 2 | 114/8 |
Hernán Fennell: BugWarp · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alejandro Ferguson: BugWarp · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ramon Sealy: BugWarp · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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