NamibiaversusNepal

27 Feb 2024 · T20

Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Namibia won by 20 runs

Namibia20.0 overs206/4 Nepal18.5 overs186/10 Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Namibia more likely to win

56%Namibia44%Nepal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Namibia rate stronger than Nepal (1,657 vs 1,582 on our results rating)
Nepal are playing at home in Nepal

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 55%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 37% to 99% during the match (Nepal: 1% to 63%).

Biggest swings

5.6: Karan KC to M van Lingen, M van Lingen out. Nepal up from 41% to 50%.
2nd inns 7.3: JN Loftie-Eaton to RK Paudel, RK Paudel out. Namibia up from 80% to 88%.
2nd inns 17.6: JN Frylinck to DS Airee, six by DS Airee. Nepal up from 4% to 12%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia206/4 Nepal186/10

Innings 1

Namibia

206/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Namibia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Michael van Lingencaught · Gulsan Jha · Karan KC 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Gulsan Jha · b Karan KC	20	19	2	1	105.26
Malan Krugernot out 6 fours · 2 sixes	not out	59*	48	6	2	122.92
Jean-Pierre Kotzecaught · Bibek Yadav · Rohit Kumar 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Bibek Yadav · b Rohit Kumar	11	9	0	1	122.22
Jan Frylinckstumped · Aasif Sheikh · Rohit Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Aasif Sheikh · b Rohit Kumar	5	7	0	0	71.43
Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatoncaught · Gulsan Jha · Abinash Bohara 11 fours · 8 sixes	caught · Gulsan Jha

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Karan KC0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	1	10.67	1
Sompal Kami0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	34	0	11.33	0
Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	0	8.00	0
Rohit Kumar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	2	7.50	2
Abinash Bohara0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	49	1	12.25	1
Kushal Malla0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	7	0	7.00	1
Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	18	0	18.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	7	16/0
3	2	18/0
4	10	28/0
5	1	29/0
6	7	36/1
7	4	40/1
8	9	49/1
9	4	53/2
10	7	60/2
11	6	66/3
12	18	84/3
13	18	102/3
14	14	116/3
15	17	133/3
16	17	150/3
17	16	166/3
18	18	184/3
19	12	196/3
20	10	206/4

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