FinlandversusSwitzerland

20 Jul 2025 · T20

Kerava National Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Switzerland won by 10 wickets

Finland16.5 overs54/10 Switzerland10.2 overs55/0 Kerava National Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Switzerland more likely to win

34%Finland66%Switzerland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Switzerland rate stronger than Finland (1,317 vs 1,207 on our results rating)
Finland are playing at home in Finland
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Switzerland won 1 and Finland won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Finland started on 31%; Finland batted first.

Finland’s chance of winning (%) · Switzerland is the rest

Finland's chances ranged from 0% to 33% during the match (Switzerland: 67% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.3: M Parinitha to S Sheridan, S Sheridan out. Switzerland up from 71% to 75%.
3.2: Meghna Rajan to R Khullar, R Khullar out. Switzerland up from 76% to 81%.
16.5: M Parinitha to H Dassanayake, H Dassanayake out. Switzerland up from 95% to 99%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Finland54/10 Switzerland55/0

Innings 1

Finland

54/1016.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Finland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Sheridancaught · Meghna Rajan · M Parinitha 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Meghna Rajan · b M Parinitha	1	5	0	0	20.00
R Khullarrun out · N Clarke, Ananya Srinivasan · Meghna Rajan 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · N Clarke, Ananya Srinivasan	4	12	0	0	33.33
D Unhalecaught · F Kuenburg · S Dabholkatr 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · F Kuenburg · b S Dabholkatr	11	24	0	0	45.83
T Mulepatibowled · Metty Fernandes 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Metty Fernandes	4	22	0	0	18.18
L Martincaught · Meghna Rajan · Naina Saju 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Meghna Rajan · b Naina Saju	1	8	0	0	12.50

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
M Parinitha0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	2.5	0	13	2	4.59	7	0
Meghna Rajan1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	7	0	1.75	0	0
D Medagoda0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	0	5.00	1	0
S Dabholkatr2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	2	0	1	0.00	0	0
Saranya Kotha0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	2	6.00	6	0
Naina Saju0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	7	1	3.50	2	0
Metty Fernandes0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	0	4	2	2.00	2	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	0	5/0
3	3	8/1
4	1	9/2
5	4	13/2
6	0	13/2
7	6	19/2
8	3	22/2
9	5	27/2
10	0	27/3
11	4	31/3
12	2	33/4
13	4	37/5
14	2	39/6
15	7	46/8
16	3	49/9
17	5	54/10

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