South AfricaversusNepal

14 Jun 2024 · T20

Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 1 runs

South Africa20.0 overs115/7 Nepal20.0 overs114/7 Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

54%South Africa46%Nepal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Nepal (1,557 vs 1,530 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 52%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 2% to 64% during the match (Nepal: 36% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.5: A Nortje to Sompal Kami, six by Sompal Kami. Nepal up from 36% to 68%.
2nd inns 19.3: OEG Baartman to Gulsan Jha, four by Gulsan Jha. Nepal up from 45% to 75%.
2nd inns 19.6: OEG Baartman to Gulsan Jha, Gulsan Jha out. South Africa up from 30% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa115/7 Nepal114/7

Innings 1

South Africa

115/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Reeza Hendrickscaught and bowled · Dipendra Singh Airee 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught and bowled · b Dipendra Singh Airee	43	49	5	1	87.76
Quinton de Kockcaught and bowled · Dipendra Singh Airee 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Dipendra Singh Airee	10	11	1	0	90.91
Aiden Markrambowled · Kushal Bhurtel 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kushal Bhurtel	15	22	2	0	68.18
Heinrich Klaasencaught · Karan KC · Kushal Bhurtel 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Karan KC · b Kushal Bhurtel

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sompal Kami1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	6	0	3.00	1
Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	3	5.25	1
Karan KC0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	9	0	9.00	0
Kushal Malla0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	17	0	8.50	0
Sandeep Lamichhane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	0	4.50	0
Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	4	4.75	1
Abinash Bohara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	0	6.33	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	6	10/0
3	6	16/0
4	6	22/1
5	9	31/1
6	7	38/1
7	2	40/1
8	11	51/1
9	2	53/1
10	4	57/1
11	10	67/1
12	2	69/2
13	4	73/2
14	4	77/3
15	3	80/3
16	5	85/4
17	10	95/4
18	4	99/5
19	7	106/5
20	9	115/7

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