ThailandversusSingapore

13 Feb 2024 · T20

Royal Selangor Club, Kuala Lumpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Thailand won by 86 runs

Thailand20.0 overs162/5 Singapore18.5 overs76/10 Royal Selangor Club, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

81%Thailand19%Singapore

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Singapore (1,555 vs 1,313 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 80%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Singapore is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 80% to 100% during the match (Singapore: 0% to 20%).

Biggest swings

0.3: JS Pooranakaran to N Chaiwai, four by N Chaiwai. Thailand up from 81% to 84%.
0.4: JS Pooranakaran to N Koncharoenkai, four by N Koncharoenkai. Thailand up from 84% to 87%.
1.3: GK Diviya to N Koncharoenkai, N Koncharoenkai out. Singapore up from 12% to 14%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand162/5 Singapore76/10

Innings 1

Thailand

162/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Nannapat Koncharoenkaicaught · Shafina Mahesh · Diviya G K 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shafina Mahesh · b Diviya G K	9	7	2	0	128.57
Naruemol Chaiwaicaught · Damini Ramesh · H Dhavina 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Damini Ramesh · b H Dhavina	33	29	5	0	113.79
S Khiaotorun out · Damini Ramesh · Diviya G K 10 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Damini Ramesh	74	58	10	0	127.59
Rosenanee Kanohrun out · Diviya G K · Diviya G K 3 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Diviya G K	20	17	3	0	117.65

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
JS Pooranakaran0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	26	0	13.00	1	1
Diviya G K0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	2	8.75	0	0
Shafina Mahesh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	0	5.50	0	0
Ada Bhasin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	0	10.00	0	0
H Dhavina0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	0	0
Vinu Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	0	6.67	0	0
RR Seth0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	10	0	10.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	16	16/0
2	2	18/1
3	1	19/1
4	8	27/1
5	3	30/1
6	9	39/1
7	4	43/1
8	11	54/1
9	9	63/1
10	4	67/1
11	8	75/2
12	9	84/2
13	5	89/2
14	11	100/2
15	11	111/2
16	7	118/2
17	9	127/2
18	12	139/3
19	10	149/3
20	13	162/5

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