Rajasthan RoyalsversusGujarat Titans

10 Apr 2024 · T20

Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Gujarat Titans won by 3 wickets

Rajasthan Royals20.0 overs196/3 Gujarat Titans20.0 overs199/7 Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rajasthan Royals started on 50%; Rajasthan Royals batted first.

Rajasthan Royals’s chance of winning (%) · Gujarat Titans is the rest

Rajasthan Royals's chances ranged from 33% to 96% during the match (Gujarat Titans: 4% to 67%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 19.1: Avesh Khan to Rashid Khan, four by Rashid Khan. Gujarat Titans up from 17% to 31%.
2nd inns 19.3: Avesh Khan to Rashid Khan, four by Rashid Khan. Gujarat Titans up from 35% to 63%.
2nd inns 19.6: Avesh Khan to Rashid Khan, four by Rashid Khan. Gujarat Titans up from 67% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rajasthan Royals196/3 Gujarat Titans199/7

Innings 1