← Match centre India tour of New Zealand 2026/27 →

**Wellington Regional Stadium**
Photo: Alexander T. Carroll, cropped by Blackcat
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

India tour of New Zealand · 2026/27 · Men

New ZealandversusIndia

27 Oct 2026 · T20

Wellington Regional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 6 wickets

New Zealand20.0 overs198/3 India13.2 overs199/4 Wellington Regional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

16%New Zealand84%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than New Zealand (1,787 vs 1,577 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and New Zealand won 1
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 14%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 48% during the match (India: 52% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: Arshdeep Singh to TL Seifert, TL Seifert out. India up from 86% to 91%.
8.3: Nithish Kumar Reddy to FH Allen, FH Allen out. India up from 58% to 65%.
19.6: Prince Yadav to BJ Jacobs, 2 runs to BJ Jacobs. India up from 53% to 59%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match highlights

All highlights →

1–1 of 2

Abhishek Sharma 113 runs vs New Zealand | NZ vs IND 3rd T20I

Willow by Cricbuzz · Uploaded 2026-10-27

Vaibhav Sooryavanshi 45 runs vs New Zealand | NZ vs IND 3rd T20I

Willow by Cricbuzz · Uploaded 2026-10-27

New Zealand198/3 India199/4

Innings 1

New Zealand

198/320.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tim Seifertcaught · Axar Patel · Arshdeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Axar Patel · b Arshdeep Singh	2	6	0	0	33.33
Finn Allencaught · Naman Dhir · Nitish Kumar Reddy 0 fours · 5 sixes	caught · Naman Dhir · b Nitish Kumar Reddy	40	25	0	5	160.00
Daryl Mitchellnot out 5 fours · 5 sixes	not out	89*	52	5	5	171.15
Glenn Phillipscaught and bowled · Axar Patel 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Axar Patel	17	14	3	0	121.43
Bevon Jacobsnot out 4 fours · 1 sixes	not out	39*	23	4	1	169.57
Extras	byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Bhuvneshwar Kumar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	0	10.00	2
Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	1	8.25	2
Prince Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	44	0	11.00	0
Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	1	9.00	0
Nitish Kumar Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	1	9.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	2	6/1
3	16	22/1
4	12	34/1
5	10	44/1
6	14	58/1
7	14	72/1
8	16	88/1
9	6	94/2
10	6	100/2
11	13	113/2
12	10	123/3
13	12	135/3
14	7	142/3
15	4	146/3
16	10	156/3
17	9	165/3
18	9	174/3
19	15	189/3
20	9	198/3

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