**Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra**
Photo: Amuzujoe
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

African Games · 2023/24 · Men

NamibiaversusUganda

21 Mar 2024 · T20

Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Namibia won by 24 runs

Namibia20.0 overs111/7 Uganda20.0 overs87/9 Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Uganda more likely to win

32%Namibia68%Uganda

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Uganda rate stronger than Namibia (1,776 vs 1,564 on our results rating)
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Namibia won 7 and Uganda won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 31%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · Uganda is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 7% to 100% during the match (Uganda: 0% to 93%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.5: H Klazinge to K Waiswa, K Waiswa out. Namibia up from 19% to 31%.
2nd inns 15.3: PD Blignaut to RG Mukasa, RG Mukasa out. Namibia up from 38% to 55%.
2nd inns 16.3: H Klazinge to AR Ramjani, AR Ramjani out. Namibia up from 67% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia111/7 Uganda87/9

Innings 1

Namibia

111/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Namibia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Malan Krugerlbw · AR Ramjani 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b AR Ramjani	21	22	2	0	95.45
Niko Davincaught · RG Mukasa · AR Ramjani 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · RG Mukasa · b AR Ramjani	25	25	4	0	100.00
GJ van Rensburgrun out · CN Kakuru · Dinesh Nakrani 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · CN Kakuru	19	28	1	0	67.86
Jean-Pierre Kotzecaught · Juma Miyagi · AR Ramjani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Juma Miyagi · b AR Ramjani	9	14	0	0	64.29
JC Baltbowled · Juma Miyagi 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Juma Miyagi	22	20

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
AR Ramjani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	3	4.00	0
Cosmas Kyewuta0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	0	7.00	1
Juma Miyagi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	3	5.00	0
Dinesh Nakrani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	17	0	5.67	0
Bilal Hassan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	0	4.67	1
Kenneth Waiswa0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	12	0	6.00	3
Henry Ssenyondo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	0	6.33	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	7	14/0
3	9	23/0
4	4	27/0
5	6	33/0
6	8	41/0
7	2	43/1
8	6	49/1
9	2	51/2
10	6	57/2
11	5	62/2
12	6	68/2
13	6	74/2
14	1	75/2
15	5	80/3
16	5	85/4
17	8	93/4
18	6	99/4
19	10	109/4
20	2	111/7

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