South AfricaversusNew Zealand

New Zealand more likely to win

Why

• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 7 and South Africa won 3
• On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than South Africa (1,713 vs 1,666 on our results rating)
• New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Africa started on 29%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa's chances ranged from 14% to 98% during the match (New Zealand: 2% to 86%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 11.5: OEG Baartman to JDS Neesham, JDS Neesham out. South Africa up from 32% to 56%.
2. 2nd inns 13.2: KA Maharaj to NF Kelly, NF Kelly out. South Africa up from 32% to 60%.
3. 2nd inns 13.5: KA Maharaj to CE McConchie, CE McConchie out. South Africa up from 61% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.