Trinbago Knight RidersversusAntigua and Barbuda Falcons

19 Sept 2024 · T20

Queen's Park Oval, Port of Spain, Trinidad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons won by 6 wickets

Trinbago Knight Riders20.0 overs134/8 Antigua and Barbuda Falcons19.0 overs135/4 Queen's Park Oval, Port of Spain, Trinidad ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Trinbago Knight Riders started on 59%; Trinbago Knight Riders batted first.

Trinbago Knight Riders’s chance of winning (%) · Antigua and Barbuda Falcons is the rest

Trinbago Knight Riders's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (Antigua and Barbuda Falcons: 38% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.3: AJ Hosein to BA King, BA King out. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 38% to 51%.
2nd inns 3.5: AD Russell to KHM James, KHM James out. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 47% to 60%.
2nd inns 18.3: J Little to Imad Wasim, six by Imad Wasim. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 80% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Trinbago Knight Riders134/8 Antigua and Barbuda Falcons135/4

Innings 1