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Portugal tour of Sweden · 2026 · Men
1 Jul 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Sweden more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sweden started on 54%; Sweden batted first.
Sweden's chances ranged from 0% to 66% during the match (Portugal: 34% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Mundracaught · U Shantu · Sebastian de Oliveira 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · U Shantu · b Sebastian de Oliveira | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 180.00 |
| DB Lakhanicaught · D Norotam · R Hashu 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · D Norotam · b R Hashu | 21 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 150.00 |
| Zaid Ahmadcaught · D Norotam · Sebastian de Oliveira 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · D Norotam · b Sebastian de Oliveira | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Imal Zuwakcaught · Sebastian de Oliveira · U Shantu 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sebastian de Oliveira · b U Shantu | 32 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 94.12 |
| YS Chauhanlbw · Edward Fleming 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Edward Fleming | 12 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
| caught · Sebastian de Oliveira · b Edward Fleming |
| 12 |
| 7 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 171.43 |
| A Dhabecaught · R Hashu · Edward Fleming 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Hashu · b Edward Fleming | 11 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 68.75 |
|---|
| Samiullah Rahmanicaught · Edward Fleming · Sebastian de Oliveira 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Edward Fleming · b Sebastian de Oliveira | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Zabiullah Zahidcaught · Edward Fleming · Sebastian de Oliveira 1 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Edward Fleming · b Sebastian de Oliveira | 25 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 178.57 |
|---|
| Zain Muzaffarnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| SN Swamynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U Shantu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 9.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Sebastian de Oliveira0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| R Hashu0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 3 | 0 |
| Sirajullah Khadim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
| H Khuttan0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 10.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Edward Fleming0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-15 (A Mundra, 1.3) · 2-15 (Zaid Ahmad, 2.0) · 3-37 (DB Lakhani, 4.2) · 4-65 (YS Chauhan, 9.5) · 5-85 (W Boshoff, 11.5) · 6-107 (A Dhabe, 15.4) · 7-109 (Imal Zuwak, 16.1) · 8-117 (Samiullah Rahmani, 17.1) · 9-142 (Zabiullah Zahid, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 14/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 15/2 |
| 3 | 10 | 25/2 |
| 4 | 9 | 34/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 37/3 |
| 6 | 4 | 41/3 |
| 7 | 8 | 49/3 |
| 8 | 2 | 51/3 |
| 9 | 11 | 62/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 65/4 |
| 11 | 13 | 78/4 |
| 12 | 7 | 85/5 |
| 13 | 8 | 93/5 |
| 14 | 5 | 98/5 |
| 15 | 5 | 103/5 |
| 16 | 6 | 109/6 |
| 17 | 8 | 117/7 |
| 18 | 4 | 121/8 |
| 19 | 10 | 131/8 |
| 20 | 12 | 143/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.