Lahore QalandarsversusIslamabad United

30 Apr 2025 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Lahore Qalandars won by 88 runs

Lahore Qalandars20.0 overs209/6 Islamabad United16.5 overs121/10 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lahore Qalandars started on 41%; Lahore Qalandars batted first.

Lahore Qalandars’s chance of winning (%) · Islamabad United is the rest

Lahore Qalandars's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Islamabad United: 0% to 63%).

Biggest swings

5.1: JO Holder to Fakhar Zaman, four by Fakhar Zaman. Lahore Qalandars up from 52% to 61%.
5.5: JO Holder to Muhammad Naeem, Muhammad Naeem out. Islamabad United up from 41% to 51%.
2nd inns 9.3: Sikandar Raza to Agha Salman, Agha Salman out. Lahore Qalandars up from 71% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Lahore Qalandars209/6 Islamabad United121/10

Innings 1