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New Zealand tour of Pakistan · 2024 · Men
20 Apr 2024 · T20
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 52%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 58% during the match (Pakistan: 43% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Seifertcaught · Shadab Khan · Shaheen Afridi 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shadab Khan · b Shaheen Afridi | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 120.00 |
| Tim Robinsoncaught · Iftikhar Ahmed · Mohammad Amir 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Iftikhar Ahmed · b Mohammad Amir | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Dean Foxcroftcaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Mohammad Amir 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Mohammad Amir | 13 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 92.86 |
| Mark Chapmancaught · Saim Ayub · Abrar Ahmed 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saim Ayub · b Abrar Ahmed | 19 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 118.75 |
| James Neeshamcaught · Shadab Khan · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shadab Khan · b Abrar Ahmed | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 16.67 |
| Cole McConchiebowled · Shaheen Afridi 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 15 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Michael Bracewellcaught · Naseem Shah · Shadab Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Naseem Shah · b Shadab Khan | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 36.36 |
|---|
 Ish Sodhilbw · Shadab Khan0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shadab Khan | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 61.54 |
|---|
 Jacob Duffynot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 10 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Ben Searscaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Naseem Shah 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Naseem Shah | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Benjamin Listerbowled · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 4.11 | 1 | 0 |
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Mohammad Amir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Iftikhar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Shadab Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-16 (Tim Seifert, 2.1) · 2-22 (Tim Robinson, 3.2) · 3-35 (Dean Foxcroft, 5.4) · 4-49 (Mark Chapman, 8.1) · 5-50 (James Neesham, 8.3) · 6-59 (Michael Bracewell, 11.1) · 7-76 (Cole McConchie, 14.5) · 8-79 (Ish Sodhi, 16.0) · 9-85 (Ben Sears, 17.4) · 10-90 (Benjamin Lister, 18.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 21/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 23/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 29/2 |
| 6 | 6 | 35/3 |
| 7 | 7 | 42/3 |
| 8 | 7 | 49/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 50/5 |
| 10 | 6 | 56/5 |
| 11 | 3 | 59/5 |
| 12 | 6 | 65/6 |
| 13 | 4 | 69/6 |
| 14 | 4 | 73/6 |
| 15 | 3 | 76/7 |
| 16 | 3 | 79/8 |
| 17 | 5 | 84/8 |
| 18 | 6 | 90/9 |
| 19 | 0 | 90/10 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Amir: 92 News · CC BY 3.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ish Sodhi: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Shadab Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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