South AfricaversusEngland

England more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than South Africa (1,759 vs 1,595 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 7 and South Africa won 3
• South Africa are playing at home in South Africa

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Africa started on 23%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa's chances ranged from 1% to 64% during the match (England: 36% to 99%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 8.2: N de Klerk to SIR Dunkley, SIR Dunkley out. South Africa up from 34% to 47%.
2. 2nd inns 10.1: E Marx to HC Knight, HC Knight out. South Africa up from 43% to 59%.
3. 2nd inns 14.6: A Hlubi to AE Jones, six by AE Jones. England up from 54% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.