PanamaversusBermuda

25 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Bermuda won by 10 wickets

Panama18.5 overs69/10 Bermuda4.3 overs73/0 White Hill Field, Sandys Parish ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bermuda more likely to win

19%Panama81%Bermuda

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bermuda rate stronger than Panama (1,545 vs 1,425 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Bermuda won 4 and Panama won 0
Bermuda are playing at home in Bermuda

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Panama started on 17%; Panama batted first.

Panama’s chance of winning (%) · Bermuda is the rest

Panama's chances ranged from 0% to 18% during the match (Bermuda: 82% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.5: Z Burgess to Sohel Patel, Sohel Patel out. Bermuda up from 82% to 88%.
4.6: Z Burgess to MY Bawa, MY Bawa out. Bermuda up from 88% to 91%.
8.6: DL Brangman to P Jayeshbhai Patel, P Jayeshbhai Patel out. Bermuda up from 91% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Panama69/10 Bermuda73/0

Innings 1

Panama

69/1018.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Panama batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
Sohel Patelbowled · Zeko Burgess 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Zeko Burgess	1	5	0	20.00
P Jayeshbhai Patelcaught · Isaiah O'Brien · Derrick Brangman 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Isaiah O'Brien · b Derrick Brangman	22	25	4	88.00
MY Bawacaught · Onais Bascome · Zeko Burgess 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Onais Bascome · b Zeko Burgess	2	15	0	13.33
A Natubhai Ahirstumped · Sinclair Smith · D Sabir 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Sinclair Smith · b D Sabir	12	27	0	44.44
Irfan Hafejeecaught · Derrick Brangman · D Sabir 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Derrick Brangman · b D Sabir	3	5	0	60.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Zeko Burgess0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	10	2	3.33	2	1
L Horan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	6	0	3.00	2	0
Delray Rawlins1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	14	2	4.67	0	0
Derrick Brangman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	0	9	3	2.35	0	0
Charles Trott0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	0	4.50	1	0
D Sabir0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	10	3	3.33	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	4	7/1
3	7	14/1
4	2	16/1
5	1	17/2
6	8	25/2
7	2	27/2
8	6	33/2
9	1	34/3
10	5	39/3
11	1	40/4
12	2	42/4
13	7	49/4
14	4	53/4
15	3	56/6
16	7	63/6
17	3	66/7
18	0	66/9
19	3	69/10

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