Cook IslandsversusSamoa

18 May 2026 · T20

Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Samoa won by 9 wickets

Cook Islands19.1 overs75/10 Samoa11.2 overs79/1 Sano International Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Cook Islands more likely to win

71%Cook Islands29%Samoa

Why

In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Cook Islands won 3 and Samoa won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Cook Islands rate stronger than Samoa (1,469 vs 1,397 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Cook Islands started on 69%; Cook Islands batted first.

Cook Islands’s chance of winning (%) · Samoa is the rest

Cook Islands's chances ranged from 0% to 70% during the match (Samoa: 30% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.6: Noah Mead to HB Dickson, HB Dickson out. Samoa up from 49% to 60%.
4.1: D Visser to MTMMJ Ave, MTMMJ Ave out. Samoa up from 60% to 73%.
7.2: S Sola to L Grace, L Grace out. Samoa up from 66% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Cook Islands75/10 Samoa79/1

Innings 1

Cook Islands

75/1019.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Cook Islands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
HB Dicksoncaught · CK Jasmat · Noah Mead 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · CK Jasmat · b Noah Mead	6	7	0	0	85.71
T Parimacaught · SJ French · CK Jasmat 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · SJ French · b CK Jasmat	0	3	0	0	0.00
C Dicksonbowled · SF Tiai 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b SF Tiai	0	2	0	0	0.00
Ma'ava Avecaught · S Cotter · Darius Visser 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · S Cotter · b Darius Visser	5	13	1	0	38.46
A Parimabowled · S Sola 0 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b S Sola	24	18	0	3	133.33
L Gracebowled · S Sola0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
CK Jasmat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	9	1	4.50	0
SF Tiai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	6	1	1.50	0
SM Nash0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.1	0	9	0	7.71	1
Noah Mead0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	10	2	2.50	1
Darius Visser1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	19	2	4.75	0
S Sola1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	20	3	5.00	3

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	1	2/2
3	7	9/2
4	2	11/3
5	0	11/4
6	2	13/4
7	11	24/4
8	7	31/5
9	2	33/5
10	4	37/5
11	8	45/6
12	0	45/8
13	1	46/8
14	1	47/8
15	3	50/9
16	9	59/9
17	2	61/9
18	4	65/9
19	8	73/9
20	2	75/10

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