ScotlandversusWest Indies

6 Oct 2024 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 6 wickets

Scotland20.0 overs99/8 West Indies11.4 overs101/4 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

51%Scotland49%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Scotland rate stronger than West Indies (1,575 vs 1,569 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 50%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 60% during the match (West Indies: 40% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.6: HK Matthews to S Horley, S Horley out. West Indies up from 42% to 50%.
2.4: CA Henry to SJ Bryce, SJ Bryce out. West Indies up from 52% to 61%.
2nd inns 0.4: R Slater to SR Taylor, SR Taylor out. Scotland up from 20% to 29%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland99/8 West Indies101/4

Innings 1

Scotland

99/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Scotland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
Saskia Horleycaught · Deandra Dottin · Hayley Matthews 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Deandra Dottin · b Hayley Matthews	11	9	2	122.22
Sarah Brycebowled · Chinelle Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Chinelle Henry	2	7	0	28.57
Kathryn Brycecaught · Karishma Ramharack · Afy Fletcher 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Karishma Ramharack · b Afy Fletcher	25	31	1	80.65
Ailsa Listercaught · Karishma Ramharack · Afy Fletcher 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Karishma Ramharack · b Afy Fletcher	26	33	1	78.79
Priyanaz Chatterjilbw · Afy Fletcher 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Afy Fletcher	0	1	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Chinelle Henry2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	10	1	2.50	0
Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	1	5.25	0
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	24	1	6.00	2
Ashmini Munisar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	8	0	8.00	0
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	3	5.50	0
Qiana Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	2	0	2.00	0
Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	0	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	5	13/1
3	0	13/2
4	6	19/2
5	0	19/2
6	6	25/2
7	2	27/2
8	8	35/2
9	4	39/2
10	6	45/2
11	5	50/2
12	7	57/2
13	5	62/4
14	6	68/4
15	8	76/5
16	2	78/6
17	4	82/6
18	4	86/6
19	7	93/6
20	6	99/8

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