JerseyversusGuernsey

Jersey more likely to win

Why

• Jersey are playing at home in Jersey
• In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Jersey won 3 and Guernsey won 2
• On results in T20 internationals so far, Guernsey rate stronger than Jersey (1,540 vs 1,534 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Jersey started on 56%; Jersey batted first.

Jersey's chances ranged from 8% to 78% during the match (Guernsey: 22% to 92%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 17.6: H Carlyon to MWR Stokes, four by MWR Stokes. Guernsey up from 42% to 70%.
2. 2nd inns 18.5: J Sumerauer to MWR Stokes, six by MWR Stokes. Guernsey up from 29% to 59%.
3. 2nd inns 19.4: CW Perchard to LT Bichard, LT Bichard out. Jersey up from 37% to 59%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.