NepalversusItaly

19 Apr 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Nepal won by 50 runs

Nepal20.0 overs112/8 Italy18.4 overs62/9 Gahanga B Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Italy more likely to win

35%Nepal65%Italy

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Italy rate stronger than Nepal (1,545 vs 1,442 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nepal started on 34%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal’s chance of winning (%) · Italy is the rest

Nepal's chances ranged from 31% to 100% during the match (Italy: 0% to 69%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.1: M Upadhayay to M Rathnayake, M Rathnayake out. Nepal up from 50% to 61%.
2nd inns 3.1: K Kunwar to A Kontopirakis, A Kontopirakis out. Nepal up from 64% to 75%.
2nd inns 3.2: K Kunwar to EL Bartram, EL Bartram out. Nepal up from 75% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nepal112/8 Italy62/9

Innings 1

Nepal

112/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Bindu Rawalcaught · EL Bartram · A Kontopirakis 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · EL Bartram · b A Kontopirakis	15	26	2	0	57.69
Samjhana Khadkacaught · M Rathnayake · S Kanankege 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Rathnayake · b S Kanankege	16	13	2	0	123.08
Puja Mahatonot out 2 fours · 1 sixes	not out	48*	45	2	1	106.67
I Barmacaught · K Peddrick · Ilenia Sims 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · K Peddrick · b Ilenia Sims	10	14	1	0	71.43
K Kunwarcaught · A Kontopirakis · K Peddrick 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Kontopirakis · b K Peddrick	4

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
C Mahamalage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	1	5.25	1	0
S Kanankege0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	10	1	5.00	0	1
Ilenia Sims0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	21	1	5.25	0	1
A Kontopirakis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	1	4.67	0	0
K Peddrick0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	1	6.50	3	0
Amaya Rajapaksha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	0	5.00	0	0
EL Bartram0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	21	3	7.00	1	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	3	5/0
3	8	13/0
4	7	20/1
5	1	21/1
6	2	23/1
7	8	31/1
8	6	37/2
9	7	44/2
10	7	51/2
11	5	56/2
12	3	59/3
13	7	66/3
14	6	72/4
15	5	77/4
16	4	81/6
17	4	85/7
18	2	87/8
19	10	97/8
20	15	112/8

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