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Photo: Krish Dulal
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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Nepal Tri-Nation T20I Series · 2023/24 · Men
1 Mar 2024 · T20
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 33%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 23% to 91% during the match (Namibia: 9% to 78%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anil Sahcaught · Zane Green · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 0 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Zane Green · b Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton | 23 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 135.29 |
| Aasif Sheikhbowled · Ben Shikongo 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ben Shikongo | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Rohit Kumarcaught · JJ Smit · Jack Brassell2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · JJ Smit · b Jack Brassell | 10 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 111.11 |
 Gulsan Jhalbw · Bernard Scholtz1 fours · 3 sixes | lbw · b Bernard Scholtz | 26 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 162.50 |
 |
| caught · Jan Frylinck · b Jack Brassell |
| 31 |
| 24 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 129.17 |
 Kushal Mallanot out1 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 55* | 37 | 1 | 4 | 148.65 |
|---|
 Dipendra Singh Aireelbw · Ben Shikongo2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ben Shikongo | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Karan KCcaught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · Ben Shikongo0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · b Ben Shikongo | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 233.33 |
|---|
 Sompal Kamicaught · Ben Shikongo · Ruben Trumpelmann0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Shikongo · b Ruben Trumpelmann | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Pratis GCnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmann0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 1 | 0 |
 Ben Shikongo0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Jack Brassell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 45 | 2 | 11.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 8.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scholtz0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Jan Frylinck0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 10.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Aasif Sheikh, 1.1) · 2-30 (Rohit Kumar, 3.4) · 3-58 (Anil Sah, 7.0) · 4-64 (Gulsan Jha, 7.2) · 5-149 (Aarif Sheikh, 16.3) · 6-167 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 18.2) · 7-175 (Karan KC, 19.0) · 8-178 (Sompal Kami, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 12/1 |
| 3 | 14 | 26/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 31/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 34/2 |
| 6 | 17 | 51/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 58/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 66/4 |
| 9 | 7 | 73/4 |
| 10 | 9 | 82/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 87/4 |
| 12 | 12 | 99/4 |
| 13 | 11 | 110/4 |
| 14 | 16 | 126/4 |
| 15 | 10 | 136/4 |
| 16 | 8 | 144/4 |
| 17 | 13 | 157/5 |
| 18 | 8 | 165/5 |
| 19 | 10 | 175/7 |
| 20 | 5 | 180/8 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Pratis GC: Hamrokhelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Shikongo: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
