South AfricaversusNew Zealand

22 Jul 2025 · T20

Harare Sports Club · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 7 wickets

South Africa20.0 overs134/8 New Zealand15.5 overs135/3 Harare Sports Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

47%South Africa53%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than South Africa (1,675 vs 1,604 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 7 and New Zealand won 3

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 45%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 49% during the match (New Zealand: 51% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.3: AF Milne to HE van der Dussen, HE van der Dussen out. New Zealand up from 51% to 61%.
9.3: W O'Rourke to D Brevis, D Brevis out. New Zealand up from 64% to 70%.
10.4: MJ Santner to LG Pretorius, LG Pretorius out. New Zealand up from 70% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa134/8 New Zealand135/3

Innings 1

South Africa

134/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
HE van der Dussenbowled · Adam Milne 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Adam Milne	14	13	3	0	107.69
Reeza Hendrickscaught · Michael Bracewell · Jacob Duffy 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Michael Bracewell · b Jacob Duffy	41	37	4	1	110.81
Rubin Hermannrun out · Mark Chapman · Mitchell Santner 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Mark Chapman	10	12	2	0	83.33
Dewald Breviscaught · Tim Seifert · William O’Rourke 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tim Seifert · b William O’Rourke	13	13	2	0	100.00
LG Pretoriuscaught · Jacob Duffy · Mitchell Santner 0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	33	2	8.25	1
Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	12	0	4.00	0
Adam Milne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	2	5.25	0
Mitchell Santner1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	26	2	6.50	0
William O’Rourke0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	1	6.50	3
Rachin Ravindra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	14	0	14.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	5	10/0
3	5	15/1
4	2	17/1
5	1	18/1
6	16	34/1
7	0	34/2
8	4	38/2
9	10	48/2
10	7	55/3
11	4	59/4
12	3	62/4
13	14	76/4
14	3	79/4
15	12	91/5
16	13	104/5
17	5	109/7
18	6	115/7
19	12	127/8
20	7	134/8

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