EnglandversusSri Lanka

3 Feb 2026 · T20

Pallekele International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 12 runs

England20.0 overs128/9 Sri Lanka19.3 overs116/10 Pallekele International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

86%England14%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,753 vs 1,546 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 10 and Sri Lanka won 0
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 85%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

England's chances ranged from 19% to 98% during the match (Sri Lanka: 3% to 81%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.1: WG Jacks to J Liyanage, J Liyanage out. England up from 29% to 51%.
2nd inns 17.4: JG Bethell to PVD Chameera, PVD Chameera out. England up from 46% to 71%.
2nd inns 17.6: JG Bethell to MD Shanaka, MD Shanaka out. England up from 70% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England128/9 Sri Lanka116/10

Innings 1

England

128/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Jos Buttlerbowled · Mahesh Theekshana 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana	25	21	2	1	119.05
Ben Duckettlbw · Dushmantha Chameera 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Dushmantha Chameera	0	1	0	0	0.00
Jacob Bethellcaught · Kusal Mendis · Matheesha Pathirana 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kusal Mendis · b Matheesha Pathirana	3	7	0	0	42.86
Tom Bantonbowled · Dunith Wellalage 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Dunith Wellalage	7	7	1	0	100.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	5	6.00	1
Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	0	7.67	0
Matheesha Pathirana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	2
Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	1	7.00	0
Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	1	4.00	0
Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/1
2	1	7/1
3	7	14/2
4	11	25/2
5	3	28/3
6	7	35/4
7	11	46/4
8	3	49/5
9	7	56/5
10	3	59/5
11	6	65/6
12	7	72/6
13	9	81/6
14	4	85/6
15	7	92/6
16	4	96/6
17	11	107/6
18	2	109/8
19	9	118/8
20	10	128/9

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