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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C · 2026/27 · Men
20 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Mozambique more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Lesotho started on 18%; Lesotho batted first.
Lesotho's chances ranged from 9% to 100% during the match (Mozambique: 0% to 91%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LM Gabriellbw · LA Simango 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b LA Simango | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
| Chachole Tlalicaught · FFZ Nhaduate · Joao Hou 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · FFZ Nhaduate · b Joao Hou | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| M Devush Patelcaught · Quelido Uqueio · Jose Bulele 8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Quelido Uqueio · b Jose Bulele | 63 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 140.00 |
| Lebona Leokaokelbw · LA Simango 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b LA Simango | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Maaz Khancaught · LA Simango · VE Tembo 4 fours · 3 sixes | caught · LA Simango · b VE Tembo | 52 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 162.50 |
| caught · MA Algi · b VE Tembo |
| 8 |
| 14 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 57.14 |
| Gladwin Thamaenot out 0 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 20* | 16 | 0 | 2 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Lefulere Monanthanebowled · VE Tembo 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b VE Tembo | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
| Ts'episo Chaoanarun out · Joao Hou, N Ndzeute · LA Simango 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Joao Hou, N Ndzeute | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| M Khautanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 2 · noballs: 6 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joao Hou0 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 11.33 | 2 | 2 |
| LA Simango0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| CB Roposo0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 8.33 | 0 | 1 |
| N Ndzeute0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 1 |
| VE Tembo0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 5.25 | 0 | 2 |
| Jose Bulele0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-10 (Chachole Tlali, 0.4) · 2-20 (LM Gabriel, 1.3) · 3-20 (Lebona Leokaoke, 1.4) · 4-118 (Maaz Khan, 12.1) · 5-141 (M Devush Patel, 15.1) · 6-149 (Inshaf Farook, 16.4) · 7-162 (Lefulere Monanthane, 18.4) · 8-167 (Ts'episo Chaoana, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 15/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 20/3 |
| 3 | 9 | 29/3 |
| 4 | 8 | 37/3 |
| 5 | 10 | 47/3 |
| 6 | 10 | 57/3 |
| 7 | 13 | 70/3 |
| 8 | 13 | 83/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 89/3 |
| 10 | 13 | 102/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 108/3 |
| 12 | 10 | 118/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 121/4 |
| 14 | 6 | 127/4 |
| 15 | 14 | 141/4 |
| 16 | 6 | 147/5 |
| 17 | 2 | 149/6 |
| 18 | 10 | 159/6 |
| 19 | 4 | 163/7 |
| 20 | 6 | 169/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.