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Photo: Rae Allen
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
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The Ashes · 2025/26 · Men
4 Dec 2025 · Test
Brisbane Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zak Crawleycaught · Alex Carey · Michael Neser11 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Michael Neser | 76 | 93 | 11 | 0 | 81.72 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Mitchell Starc | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Ollie Popebowled · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Starc | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| not out |
| 138* |
| 206 |
| 15 |
| 1 |
| 66.99 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Steve Smith · Mitchell Starc4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Mitchell Starc | 31 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 93.94 |
|---|
 Ben Stokesrun out · Josh Inglis · Brendan Doggett4 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Josh Inglis | 19 | 49 | 4 | 0 | 38.78 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithbowled · Scott Boland0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Scott Boland | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Will Jackscaught · Steve Smith · Mitchell Starc3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Mitchell Starc | 19 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 61.29 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsoncaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Starc | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsecaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Starc | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Jofra Archercaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Brendan Doggett2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Brendan Doggett | 38 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 105.56 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 20.0 | 0 | 75 | 6 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael Neser3 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.0 | 3 | 43 | 1 | 3.07 | 1 | 0 |
 Scott Boland1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 19.0 | 1 | 87 | 1 | 4.58 | 2 | 0 |
 Brendan Doggett1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 15.2 | 1 | 81 | 1 | 5.28 | 0 | 1 |
 Cameron Green1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 43 | 0 | 5.38 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Ben Duckett, 1.0) · 2-5 (Ollie Pope, 2.3) · 3-122 (Zak Crawley, 27.5) · 4-176 (Harry Brook, 39.2) · 5-210 (Ben Stokes, 55.0) · 6-211 (Jamie Smith, 55.3) · 7-251 (Will Jacks, 64.5) · 8-264 (Gus Atkinson, 66.2) · 9-264 (Brydon Carse, 66.4) · 10-334 (Jofra Archer, 76.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 11/2 |
| 4 | 11 | 22/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 23/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 28/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 30/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 32/2 |
| 9 | 11 | 43/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 45/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 51/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 58/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 63/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 64/2 |
| 15 | 1 | 65/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 70/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 71/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 76/2 |
| 19 | 2 | 78/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 84/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 86/2 |
| 22 | 7 | 93/2 |
| 23 | 1 | 94/2 |
| 24 | 4 | 98/2 |
| 25 | 9 | 107/2 |
| 26 | 6 | 113/2 |
| 27 | 8 | 121/2 |
| 28 | 2 | 123/3 |
| 29 | 10 | 133/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 139/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 143/3 |
| 32 | 4 | 147/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 152/3 |
| 34 | 2 | 154/3 |
| 35 | 3 | 157/3 |
| 36 | 9 | 166/3 |
| 37 | 0 | 166/3 |
| 38 | 6 | 172/3 |
| 39 | 3 | 175/3 |
| 40 | 5 | 180/4 |
| 41 | 1 | 181/4 |
| 42 | 1 | 182/4 |
| 43 | 9 | 191/4 |
| 44 | 2 | 193/4 |
| 45 | 1 | 194/4 |
| 46 | 2 | 196/4 |
| 47 | 0 | 196/4 |
| 48 | 1 | 197/4 |
| 49 | 2 | 199/4 |
| 50 | 4 | 203/4 |
| 51 | 1 | 204/4 |
| 52 | 2 | 206/4 |
| 53 | 0 | 206/4 |
| 54 | 4 | 210/4 |
| 55 | 0 | 210/5 |
| 56 | 1 | 211/6 |
| 57 | 4 | 215/6 |
| 58 | 1 | 216/6 |
| 59 | 2 | 218/6 |
| 60 | 9 | 227/6 |
| 61 | 8 | 235/6 |
| 62 | 0 | 235/6 |
| 63 | 13 | 248/6 |
| 64 | 2 | 250/6 |
| 65 | 1 | 251/7 |
| 66 | 9 | 260/7 |
| 67 | 4 | 264/9 |
| 68 | 5 | 269/9 |
| 69 | 4 | 273/9 |
| 70 | 19 | 292/9 |
| 71 | 15 | 307/9 |
| 72 | 9 | 316/9 |
| 73 | 6 | 322/9 |
| 74 | 3 | 325/9 |
| 75 | 4 | 329/9 |
| 76 | 4 | 333/9 |
| 77 | 1 | 334/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Michael Neser: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Brendan Doggett: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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